Talks and Articles Myths in Today's Frothy Markets by Rob Arnott Myths in Today's Frothy Mkts-Arnott.mp4 This 35 min presentation was given by Rob Arnott at an online Money Show. I've watched it several times, usually with sharing on Zoom with friends and clients. Buy Bottom Bubbles. The equity market over the next ten years will disappoint. Lots of solid data. Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises By Ray Dalio.pdf This pdf is the entire book. The first 68 pages are an excellent background of classical economic perspectives on macroeconomic debt levels and recipes for action. His work is based on broad historical data and analyses. Particularly cogent is how he divides the issues between countries holding the reserve currency and countries not so privileged. A very different orientation is presented by Modern Monetary Theory. A good 9 minute introduction is provided by economist Stephanie Kelton at https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/01/stephanie-kelton-explains-modern-monetary-theory.html. Can Critical Thinking Subvert Behavioral Finance? Critical Thinking Clubs, November 2018 How can critical thinkers avoid the pitfalls outlined by Behavioral Finance? How can they take advantage of the foibles in others' decision-making? Outline and Resources: CTC Handout.pdf Presentation Slides: CTC Nov 2018.pdf Sample Pivot Table: Pivot Sample.xlsx Monte Carlo: Monte Carlo Planning.pdf, Planning Input Data.pdf, Planning2017-30yr.xlsm Gains from Behavioral Finance October 12, 2017 Gains Behavioral Finance.pdf Instead of merely trying to not fall victim to the human foibles revealed by behavioral finance, how can we go a step further and capitalize on all the stupid things investors do? Liquidity as a Style December 4, 2015. Ibbotson-Liquidity as an Investment Style.pdf Roger Ibbotson et.al. present a compelling case and data as to why liquidity can produce excess returns even more so than the usual factors of value, size and momentum. Style Reversion to the Mean December 4, 2015. If Factor Returns Are Predictable_Why is There an Investor Return Gap.pdf Styles or factors run in predictable cycles, with most investors exiting and changing managers, funds or investments when they should be buying. The article was published by Research Affiliates and is written by Jason Hsu, Ph.D. Below are reports on my endeavors to test and implement this very provocative article. Presentation Slides for Twin Cities AAII Chapter Program December 3, 2015 AAII Dec 2015.pptx These are the PowerPoints I used in my presentation to the local AAII chapter titled "Dangerous Maxims." I also review other research, some of it described on this site. | 
